CEIR Forecast: Uzbekistan's GDP is expected to reach 6.5% in 2024.

In its updated report, the Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) has revised its GDP growth forecast for Uzbekistan for 2024. The report highlights that the steady economic growth is attributed to the robust development of key sectors and an increase in investments.

2024-12-20 08:47:08https://uzdaily.uz/ru/prognoz-tseir-vvp-uzbekistana-v-2024-godu-sostavit-65/

As of the end of the third quarter of 2024, Uzbekistan's economy is demonstrating stable growth rates. According to the Statistics Agency, the country's economy showed a growth of 6.6% in the first nine months of 2024.

The Business Activity Index (BAI), calculated by the Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR), exhibited a significant increase of 17.7% in October compared to the previous month and 33.8% relative to the same period last year. In November, the year-on-year growth of the BAI remains impressive at 23.9%.

Data Analysis and Current Economic Trends

According to an analysis of Google Trends data, there is a noticeable increase in activity in the fourth quarter of the current year. Searches in categories such as "motor vehicles" have risen by 6.1%, "business and industry" by 10.0%, and "shopping" by 12.8%. These figures indicate a significant rise in consumer interest and activity.

Overall, based on a thorough analysis of current economic trends and considering the aforementioned factors,
the projected GDP growth for Uzbekistan in 2024 is expected to be 6.5%, within a range of 6.3–6.7%.

The sustained growth of the economy is attributed to several key factors. Firstly, the dynamic development of the industry, which is reflected in increased production volumes and infrastructure modernization.

Secondly, the rise in investments in fixed capital, which contributes to the creation of new jobs and the improvement of the business environment.

Thirdly, the strengthening of the services sector, which demonstrates significant activity and a variety of offerings.

The above-mentioned factors create a solid foundation for stable economic growth by the end of the year and generate optimistic expectations, including from international organizations.

In particular, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects GDP growth of 5.6%, the World Bank (WB) predicts 6.0%, and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) also forecasts a growth of 6.0%. All these estimates are based on active investment activity and the continuation of structural reforms.

Projected weekly GDP growth for Uzbekistan in 2024

Reference: The forecasts have been made using two approaches: "Nowcasting," based on extremely detailed flows of extensive data, and "Financial Programming and Policy" (FPP), which considers the main characteristics of macroeconomic sectors (real, fiscal-budgetary, external economic, and monetary-credit) and explains their interrelations with other sectors of the economy.